What 15 Combined Authorities Told Me About the Future of Bus Fares

Over the past few weeks, I have submitted Freedom of Information requests to Combined Authorities across England to understand one simple question:

What happens if the national bus fare cap ends?

The answers I’ve received paint a picture that should concern anyone who cares about affordable public transport.

Not because of what was said.

But because of what wasn’t.

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A fragmented picture

Across multiple Combined Authorities, responses revealed no consistent approach to future fare policy.

Some authorities confirmed they hold no modelling, no financial assessment, no demand analysis and no contingency planning whatsoever in relation to the potential withdrawal of the national fare cap.

No reports.

No briefings.

No correspondence with the Department for Transport.

In other areas, authorities confirmed that only early-stage scoping work exists — not full analysis, not developed policy, just initial thinking.

In contrast, one authority confirmed that modelling does exist, but refused to release it on the basis that doing so could prejudice commercial interests.

That tells us something important.

In some areas, planning is happening.

In others, it simply isn’t.

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Policy in development — but not aligned

Several authorities confirmed that future fares strategies are currently being developed, with decisions expected later in 2026 or beyond.

In one case, no modelling had been undertaken since a report presented in 2024.

In another, analysis of fare changes is underway — but only in parts of the network.

In others, transport powers are still delegated to local councils, meaning the Combined Authority itself holds no relevant information.

This is not a coordinated national approach.

It is a patchwork.

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Government knows this is a live issue

One of the most revealing findings came not from a Combined Authority, but from central government itself.

HM Treasury confirmed that it holds cost-benefit analysis, economic modelling and impact assessments relating to the national bus fare cap.

But it refused to release them.

Why?

Because the policy is still being developed.

Because the scheme is under active review.

Because decisions have not yet been finalised.

Separately, authorities confirmed they have received a Department for Transport questionnaire asking what would happen if the fare cap were removed, including the impact on demand and revenue.

This confirms something very clearly:

The future of the bus fare cap is not settled.

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The risk: a postcode lottery

If the national fare cap ends without a clear, consistent alternative, the evidence suggests that different parts of England will respond in very different ways.

Some may introduce local caps.

Some may not be able to afford to.

Some may rely on commercial fare setting.

Some may delay decisions altogether.

The result is obvious.

Different fares in different areas.

Different levels of protection for passengers.

Different levels of affordability depending on where you live.

A postcode lottery.

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Why this matters

As a working bus driver, I don’t see policy in abstract terms.

I see people.

People who rely on buses to get to work, to education, to appointments, to everyday life.

For them, fare stability matters.

When fares rise sharply, people don’t always complain.

They simply stop travelling.

And once passengers are lost, they are hard to win back.

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What the evidence shows

The evidence gathered so far is clear:

There is no consistent national planning for the potential withdrawal of the fare cap.

There is no aligned approach across Combined Authorities.

There is no clear national direction yet in place.

But there is active policy development at government level.

That combination creates uncertainty.

And uncertainty is exactly what passengers — and the bus network — do not need.

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The question now

The question is not whether change is coming.

It clearly is.

The question is whether that change will be:

Coordinated, stable and fair

Or fragmented, uneven and uncertain

Because if we get this wrong, we won’t just be debating fare policy.

We’ll be dealing with the consequences.

And those consequences will be felt first by the people who rely on buses the most.